Cheltenham Festival 2025: @RoadCheltenham Provides His Five Opposable Festival Favourites

We’re officially less than eight weeks out from the 2025 Cheltenham Festival and the antepost markets are taking shape as we enter the business end of the season.

The Dublin Racing Festival is just around the corner and the state of the current betting odds is set to change drastically in the coming weeks.

There is little doubt that the Cheltenham Festival markets are looking more competitive this year and there is still plenty of value to be had – particularly in the novice races.

I’ve taken a look at the current antepost markets and have come up with five favourites to avoid backing at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. So, let’s get to it...

SALVATOR MUNDI – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Best Price: 7/2, Worst Price: 11/4

I can see the angle with Salvator Mundi in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle but he’s short in the betting at 7/2 and I couldn’t even think about backing him at that price. If you are on at fancy prices then great but he’s now a very skinny favourite by all accounts.

He did very well to win the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle but he was incredibly novicey and you’d like to see a more polished, professional performance ahead of a Supreme. In addition, the time and figures merchants agree with the visual perception as this year’s race was regarded as the worst renewal for over a decade.

Salvator Mundi will likely come on for the run – having been off the track since May and under the weather over Christmas – but he’s no betting proposition at the prices and he is an easy one to oppose. At this moment in time, I’d say Romeo Coolio is probably the value bet and he is likely to go forward and dictate the pace at Cheltenham.

Whether Jack Kennedy makes it back in time or it’s Sam Ewing in the saddle, one thing’s for sure – Romeo will be seen to best effect if he attempts to make it a stamina test. You could say a fast pace will suit Salvator Mundi too, but I’d like to see how the horse copes with the atmosphere and the occasion. He could easily boil over.

BALLYBURN – Brown Advisory Novices Chase

Best Price: 7/2, Worst Price: 5/2

It would be fair to suggest that the Turners Novices' Chase was Plan A for Ballyburn but that race is now obsolete, with the three-time Grade 1 winner caught slightly between a rock and a hard place. Plan B kicked in and he was set to be aimed at the Arkle Novices' Chase before bumping into potential superstar Sir Gino at Kempton.

It feels to me like the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase is very much Plan C and you don’t often see Willie Mullins chopping and changing trip quite so frequently. We were talking about Ballyburn as a future Cheltenham Gold Cup horse a matter of months ago yet it now feels like he’s on some sort of recovery mission.

He’s bred to be a stayer but he was winning Grade 1s over two miles last term and the Brown Advisory trip remains an unknown. All being well, we will learn more at the Dublin Racing Festival but he won’t have everything his own way and fellow Closutton inmates Impaire Et Passe, Champ Kiely and potentially Dancing City offer stern resistance.

I’m a huge fan of Ballyburn – and I have great respect for his connections – but I’m happy to oppose him at 3/1 at this moment in time. The Brown Advisory can be a gruelling test and I’d like to see how he gets on at Leopardstown before making a decision on whether to back him at Cheltenham or not.

JONBON – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Best Price: 9/4, Worst Price: 7/4

Is it going to be Jonbon’s year? The eight-time Grade 1 winner heads the betting for the Champion Chase but does it say more about the competition rather than Jonbon taking his form to the next level? El Fabiolo has yet to appear this season while Energumene has been seen once since April 2023 and Gaelic Warrior had several issues in the lead-up to his run at Christmas.

The general consensus is that Jonbon hasn’t really been seen to best effect around the undulations of Cheltenham – and there’s probably legs to that argument. If you look at RPRs alone, the Nicky Henderson star has recorded a figure of 170 or higher on five separate occasions and none of those have been achieved at Prestbury Park.

In fact, Jonbon recorded his best rating at Cheltenham in the 2023 Shloer Chase last season – achieving an RPR of 169 while beating old rival Edwardstone by nine lengths on the bridle. If the Champion Chase was to take place Sandown, I’d be all over Jonbon but his performances at Cheltenham are a genuine concern for me.

I suppose the argument is: well, who beats him? If it came up very soft, I’d fancy Mullins to have Energumene primed for the challenge. Meanwhile, Gaelic Warrior’s connections insist that the Queen Mother Champion Chase has always been his target and he could spoil the party. I’m expecting Jonbon to win the Clarence House Chase at Ascot but that won’t put me off opposing him in March.

MAUGHREEN – Mares' Novices' Hurdle

Best Price: 5/1, Worst Price: 9/2

I could be eating humble pie come St Patrick’s Thursday at the Festival but I just cannot believe Maughreen remains the antepost favourite for this race despite being sidelined since her bumper victory at Punchestown last January. As impressive as she was, she’s not even received an entry for a race this year and she’ll need a run soon enough.

There’s no denying her talent and she looked like a potential superstar on track debut last year but there’s no guarantee she will take to hurdling. Plus, she’s obviously had an issue or two over the past 12 months and that doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence. I’ll be keeping a close eye out for an entry in the coming weeks.

Plenty in the betting have run just once but I often prefer to back a mare with experience under her belt, especially in this race. We’ve seen the likes of Dinoblue, Epatante and Luccia go to this rare and flop in previous years and I doubt Maughreen has time to have two runs before Cheltenham.

Picking a winner in this race is quite tricky as it looks wide open at this stage. However, Gavin Cromwell’s mare Sixandahalf has a lot of racecourse experience from the flat and she looked very good on hurdles debut. She’d be a tentative pick for me but Maughreen is definitely on my ‘to oppose’ list right now.

LULAMBA – Triumph Hurdle

Best Price: 4/1, Worst Price: 4/1

Last but not least, we have Lulamba. This is simply a price thing – nothing more and nothing less than that. But at 4/1 for a horse we’ve yet to see in Britain, I’m happy to let the ship sail past without getting on the boat. Listen, he could be Sir Gino 2.0 but I’m not willing to take a chance at his current price.

I know very little about Lulamba other than the fact that half of Twitter have him backed at double figure prices to win the Triumph. I’ve seen several posts relating to him, with one fella claiming that he breezed past Jonbon in a piece of work. The horse might turn out to be a monster but I’d prefer to wait and see it with my own eyes.

Rewind to this time last year and a video of the Closutton gallops had social media detectives hunting down the horse that worked well with El Fabiolo. That horse turned out to be Femme Magnifique, who is now rated 116 having won just two of her nine races under rules and she’s been pulled up the last twice. Enough said.

There are plenty of better judges than me when it comes to French form so for the time being I’m keeping my powder dry on the Triumph Hurdle. If Lulamba turns out to be the next Seven Barrows superstar then so be it. But for now, he’s an easy inclusion on this list of Cheltenham Favourites to oppose.