Kerry National Preview: Neville's Star Will Take Some Whacking
One of the real highlights of the start of the Irish Jumps season is upon us: The Kerry National! The rain is falling in Listowel on race day which could hinder some and help others, and Billy Grimshaw has gone through the field before giving us his idea of the winner...
First things first - what a renewal of the Kerry National this looks on paper! The classy veteran Fakir D'Oudairies brings the class of a four time Grade 1 winner to the table, while Zanahiyr is another who has been a regular in Grade 1s himself, never getting his had in front but regularly filling the second spot. We also have two time Cheltenham Stayers' Hurdle winner Flooring Porter in the race, who although undoubtedly a top level animal, he has never quite hit the heights over fences that he did over hurdles for Gavin Cromwell. Today could be the day, especially with the ground softening.
Cromwell has a very strong hand in here and the favourite for the race Perceval Legallois is arguably the best handicapped horse in here for the yard. I was tempted to put him up as he is surely better than a mark of 142, however I'm not keen on him at the price now we have seen his jumping errors become more and more common in the heat of battle toward the end of races.
He fell at Leopardstown last February before disappointing into ninth when 7/2 favourite Galway Plate recently, so he has his jumping prowess to prove for all his ability is without question. I'd want double figures in truth about the horse and the value is clearly long gone, for all this extra distance may well play to his strengths. Desertmore House - the 2023 winner - is back to defend his crown this year but a nine pound higher mark will make things difficult given how much stronger the race looks this season. 2022's winner Busselton is also back for more but although he is back on a favourable mark, he will not like the heavy rain falling and potentially soft surface.
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Floorng Porter will almost certainly want the lead, however the horse I'm backing to bounce right back to his best and lead them all a merry dance from the front is THE REAL WHACKER for Patrick Neville. This horse has arguably the strongest piece of form of any in this race over fences, beating the now widely regarded second best staying chaser around Gerri Colombe in the 2023 Brown Advisory. Since that day, things have not quite clicked again for Neville's stable star but there have been excuses aplenty/
His fourth in last season's King George was still a fine effort and with Neville's team in much better nick this season than they were most of the last campaign - something which may be attributed to the trainer switching yards - I believe there are still plenty of big prizes to plunder for the still only eight year old The Real Whacker. On song he is a brilliant sight to behold on the front end fighting over all challengers and while 155 is not exactly lenient, it is also not an insurmountable mark.
It would be remiss of me not to touch on the strong Gordon Elliott team, with Zanahiyr his shortest priced runner but plenty more in with a big shout at longer odds. I was half tempted to tip up The Goffer earlier in the week but I'm not sure he'll want things soft and so I can leave him at a big price, Amirite of 143 looks thrown in but is yet to convince in this type of race. Duffle Coat finished in front of Chemical Energy in the Galway Plate but I'd expect those placings reversed in the battle of the Elliott horses given this stronger test of stamina over speed. They'll all have a job on catching a peak form The Real Whacker though and I'm praying that is what we see.