1000 Guineas Tips: Statement to down Santa Barbara at Newmarket
Steve Chambers picks out his best bet for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, which takes place on Sunday afternoon...
Aidan O'Brien is bidding for a seventh victory in the 1000 Guineas, and his third on the bounce, and the master of Ballydoyle will saddle the red-hot favourite Santa Barbara in the Group 1 Classic on Sunday. It's rare you see a once-raced filly such a warm order for a race of this nature, but the O'Brien team have been vocal in their adoration for this daughter of Camelot, and she could prove to be a cut above her rivals.
A maiden success at the Curragh in September launched her into the Classic picture, and this trip of a mile looks ideal at this stage, but she could lack the experience to claim a race of this nature, and she is worth taking on at the prices.
Two fillies that line up in top form are Alcohol Free and Sacred, who both could prove to be significant thorns in the side of the hot favourite, Santa Barbara. Andrew Balding's Alcohol Free ended last season with a fine win in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket over six furlongs, and she built on that effort with a short-head success in the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury over seven furlongs.
Meanwhile, Sacred made arguably a more eye-catching prep performance for this event, as she stormed to a sparkling win in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket in mid-April. Getting the better of Saffron Beach that day, who also lines up here, Sacred showed a fine turn of foot to kick comfortably clear in the closing stages, and she should not only frank the form with Saffron Beach, but also make a notable challenge for glory here.
Martyn Meade's STATEMENT was just touched off by the aforementioned Alcohol Free in the Fred Darling, but at double-figured odds, at the time of writing, this exciting filly could be the each-way value in the race. The daughter of Lawman has notched up one win and three seconds from her four career starts, and while that success came in heavy going at Newbury over six furlongs, she should perform to a high level on a sounder surface and makes significant appeal. Like Alcohol Free, Statement wasn't stopping at the end of that recent Newbury event, so a step up to a mile should suit her, and while others may be waving the white flag late on, she can stay on in tremendous fashion and get her nose in the frame, if not in front.
Of the others, Mother Earth had a busy juvenile campaign which saw her finish third in the Fillies' Mile at Newmarket, while she was a gallant runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf on her last outing. A replication of that high level of form has to see her make a significant charge for glory here, and she is another notable O'Brien runner.
Thunder Beauty and the speedy Fev Rover are another two of note, but could both find it tough to land the top prize, and it's Statement that can make just that hand Meade and William Buick Classic glory on Sunday afternoon.
