Grand National: How do the favourites fare?

Cloth Cap is currently as short as 7/2 for the Grand National
Cloth Cap is currently as short as 7/2 for the Grand National

The 2021 Grand National features a heavy favourite in the form of Cloth Cap, who, though should rightfully be at the top of the market, is as short as 7/2 to claim the most famous steeplechase in the world. With his price edging into the territory of unbackable for such a brutal and unpredictable race, we’ve looked back on the results of the race since the turn of the millennium to see if stats are on Cloth Cap’s side.

How many favourites have won?

Including joint-favourites, we have only seen four winning favourites of the Grand National since 2000, with two of them - Comply Or Die (2008, 7/1) and Don’t Push It (2010, 10/1) falling into the aforementioned joint-favourite category. The two stand alone favourites to taste success on Merseyside have been Hedgehunter (2005, 7/1) and the most recent winner of the race, Tiger Roll (2019, 4/1), who was also the shortest-priced favourite of this century, just ahead of Hedgehunter who was 5/1 when going for his double in 2006. 

Grand National Odds

How many favourites have been single-figure prices?

Of the 20 renewals of the race since 2000, 16 have been single-figure prices, with the remainder of the double-figure prices all being 10/1 joint-favourites. The mean average starting price of the favourites is 7.6/1, with three of the winning favourites coming below this price.

What has been the fate of the favourites?

As previously mentioned, four of the favourites (including all joint-favourites) have won -  giving them a 20% strike-rate per year. 16 of them have completed the course with ten of them having placed (Top five), while six have finished outside of the placing. 12 have failed to complete the course, with five pulled-up, five falling and two unseating. So statistically, the favourites do tend to complete the gruelling 4m2f contest, and you have a high chance of them placing - though at 7/2 that’s not much good with Cloth Cap!

How have the outsiders fared?

It may be no surprise that in a race with 40 runners, 30 fences jumped and over four miles contested that the outsiders tend to fare well when taking on the favourites. We’ve had 16 winners of the event - 80% - come from the outsiders since the turn of the century, with the most famous being Mon Mome, who landed the prize at 100/1 in 2009. In fact, the mean average starting-price of Grand National winners this century is 24/1, so it may be worth to look down the market for an each-way play rather than backing the short-priced favourite.

How the favourites have fared since 2000

  • 2019 - TIGER ROLL 4/1 - WON
  • 2018 - TOTAL RECALL 7/1 - Pulled Up
  • 2017 - BLAKLION 8/1 - 4th
  • 2016 - THE LAST SAMURI 8/1 JF - 2nd, MANY CLOUDS 8/1 JF - 16th
  • 2015 - SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR 6/1 - 5th
  • 2014 - DOUBLE SEVEN 10/1 JF - 3rd, TEAFORTHREE 10/1 JF - Unseated Rider
  • 2013 - SEABASS 11/2 - 13th
  • 2012 - SEABASS 8/1 JF - 3rd, SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 8/1 JF - 9th
  • 2011 - THE MIDNIGHT CLUB 15/2 - 6th
  • 2010 - DON’T PUSH IT 10/1 JF - WON, BIG FELLA THANKS 10/1 JF - 4th
  • 2009 - BUTLER’S CABIN 7/1 - 7th
  • 2008 - COMPLY OR DIE 7/1 JF - WON, CLOUDY LANE 7/1 JF 6th
  • 2007 - POINT BARROW 8/1 CF - Fell, JOE’S EDGE 8/1 CF - Pulled Up, MONKERHOSTIN 8/1 CF - Refused
  • 2006 - HEDGEHUNTER 5/1 JF - 2nd, CLAN ROYAL 5/1 JF - 3rd
  • 2005 - HEDGEHUNTER 7/1 - WON
  • 2004 - CLAN ROYAL 10/1 CF - 2nd, BINDAREE 10/1 CF - Unseated Rider, JOSS NAYLOR 10/1 CF - Pulled Up, JURANCON II 10/1 CF - Fell
  • 2003 - SHOTGUN WILLY 7/1 - Pulled Up
  • 2002 - BLOWING WIND 8/1 - 3rd
  • 2001 - EDMOND 10/1 CF - Fell, INIS CARA 10/1 CF - Fell, MORAL SUPPORT 10/1 CF - Refused
  • 2000 - DARK STRANGER 9/1 - Unseated Rider
Grand National Runners
Advert Disclaimer is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.

100% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus + 25 Spins

#AD 18+; New bettors get 100% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; Free spins validity: 7 days; Free spins max. winnings = £100; See full terms; Terms apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after  settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after  the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. 18+. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card or Trustly. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5. Free bets expire in 90 days. Full T&Cs apply.
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £60 in Bonuses
#AD New UK customers only. Register using the promo code BETFRED60, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £20 in Free Bets to be used on Sports, £10 in Free Bets to be used on Lotto and 50 Free Spins (20p per spin) credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. Further £20 in Free Bets credited 5 days after settlement. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As CASH If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Horse Racing market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply.
Money Back As Cash Up To £20
#AD Max £20 refund on first bet. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. Only deposits made via Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. T&Cs apply. 18+
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD Minimum deposit of £10 using deposit code 30F - A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 placed on any sports market - Minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager bonus amount x40 within 14 days • Wagering req. vary by game • Withdrawal restrictions and Full T&C’s apply. 18+
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets
#AD Offer includes a free £1 Race Index spread bet to try out our exciting 50-25-10 race markets. Place a £10 fixed odds bet at minimum odds of 1/2. Get 2 x £10 free fixed odds bets + 2 x £5 free Winning Favourites spread bets. Bet with live streaming on all racing and greyhounds! Ts&Cs Apply. 18+
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply
£25 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £25 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins on Asgard Warriors. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only |
Latest racing results
1stThe Game Is On
3rdLetter Of The Law
2ndLethal Touch
1stSir Rodneyredblood
3rdBlue Venture
View All Today's Results