Mill Reef Stakes Tips: Nothing Sketchy About Group 2 Favourite
The Newbury card on Saturday has been decimated by non runners due to the torrential rain that has hit the track and softened the ground. No race has been as badly affected as the Mill Reef, with the three market leaders all withdrawn at final decs stage sighting the potentially heavy conditions. Nevertheless, when a race changes so drastically it often leaves a fresh puzzle for punters to solve and Billy Grimshaw thinks he has found the winner of the Group Two for us, and explains why here...
Never mind that we don't see Elite Status strutting his stuff again, and forget about Lake Forest who was the second favourite at the antepost stage. This race to my eye has revolved around one horse since initial entries were made and that is MISTER SKETCH. I am fairly confident he will go off favourite here so any lingering 3/1 should be quickly snaffled up by you, dear reader, as this horse is a bit of a weapon and the soft ground should only aid his chances.
Yes his win last time out was on at Salisbury, but to romp away by nine lengths on heavy was a performance that made a lot of our ears prick up. Upon rewatching the contest I think this strapping son of Territories is just a brute and on breeding as well as visuals he is bound to always impress when the mud is flying, The same cannot be said for a few of the rest of the field but his co-favourite Seven Questions does in fairness have a soft ground win at Ripon on his resume.
Haatem has been admirably good throughout the season but has danced every dance and last time out he was comprehensibly beaten into ninth by Lake Forest at York. Perhaps this was just an off day, but the worry would be he has had enough racing for the season and with that in mind a race on soft ground isn't something that would sound ideal. He will also be carrying a penalty for his Vintage Stakes win at Goodwood earlier this year and I couldn't back him with any confidence in here.
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Array wasn't beaten too far last time out by the aforementioned Seven Questions and warrants consideration, although if I am convinced that Mister Sketch is a better horse than the horse that beat him into third then the choice is clear. Red Zone Hero looks a touch overpriced as he was good, admittedly in a poor race, at Doncaster on soft last time out. Winning by four and a bit lengths he was clearly relishing conditions and horses like him often take a marked step forward in the autumn as they encounter ground to their liking.
Spanish Phoenix looks way out of his depth in Group company and would need to improve plenty to trouble even Haatem, let alone the market leaders, while Roman Emperor has only raced once until now and although he is well bred, things could all happen a bit quick for one so inexperienced. Matters Most is also unexposed but has a bit more experience than Roman Emperor, and his win at Ripon last time out was a decent showing.
All things considered I think you can make a case against the majority of this field, with Mister Sketch being the notable exception. Eve Johnson-Houghton's charge is still unexposed enough to be able to improve past his more experienced rivals, has proven himself to love the soft ground, and has had his Salisbury win backed up as exceptional by the clock watchers. Overall this looks an eminently winnable Group 2 and I would not be surprised to see Mister Sketch streak clear again, so he rates a strong win only bet.
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