Paddy Power Gold Cup Tips: Brown Advisory Winner Will Take Some Whacking

The feature race of the whole November Meeting at Cheltenham is of course the Paddy Power Gold Cup, over 2m 4f 43y. This is one of the big intermediate tests for handicappers and indeed some graded horses in the early part of the National Hunt season, and the 2023 renewal looks a vintage one. Billy Grimshaw has scoured the entries and decided on his idea of the most likely winner...

While this race is not necessarily a bona-fide Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, Imperial Commander did scoop the prize in 2008 before winning the big one in 2010 in that iconic renewal when Kauto fell and he outfought Denman. Since 2008 no horse as good as Imperial Commander has won this prestigious handicap, but there have still been some fine weight carrying performances from some excellent animals, including Taquin Du Seuil, Midnight Shadow and Al Ferof.

On the other hand, horses carrying 11 stone or lower do have a better record of late, with eight of the last ten winners not near the top of the weights in the handicap. The three horses named, along with Imperial Commander, were all primed for their life to win this race off a big weight and while that is a bit of a worry for THE REAL WHACKER, I do think he has the credentials to carry top weight to glory. Many seem to think he did not deserve his Brown Advisory win last time out, with the more high profile and better fancied Gerri Colombe going down in a photo finish to the long time leader.

That horse is as short as 5/1 for this season's Gold Cup at Cheltenham and while I have no doubt he will in the fullness of time prove himself a better chaser than The Real Whacker, Patrick Neville's stable star is being underestimated by not being the favourite for this contest. He showed that day his battling qualities and his jumping was near flawless under a gutsy and aggressive Sam Twiston-Davies, and with that partnership renewed here I can see him leading them all a merry dance once more and fighting off all challengers. He will be thrust into the Gold Cup reckoning if he manages to win this carrying 12 stone, but I think he has the capability and should at least reward each-way backers with extra places aplenty availabel.

Ahead of him in the market is Stage Star for Paul Nicholls, another who will have to lug a big weight around on the back of his Turners success at last year's festival. Maybe I am being overly critical of that race last season, but to my eye it was ordinary at best with Mighty Potter underperforming and Stage Star only just beating Notlongtillmay, who reopposes. I would also be against him despite the weight swing with the favourite, while Unexpected Party has to be respected after beating Knappers Hill first time out, who has boosted the form since. The trouble with him is in a truly run race like this, with The Real Whacker undoubtedly making it a real stamina test, I am not sure he will stay. This is especially true if Harry Skelton gets excited, as he can sometimes do in this type of race.

Il Ridoto is quirky with a capital Q, but is talented on his day. It will take Freddie Gingell all his wits in the saddle to get this lad performing, but if in the early stages he looks interested he could well get into the mix and of Nicholls's two I'd fancy him more.at the prices. Willie Mullins and Gavin Cromwell send one apiece and represent the Irish challenge, and it is Cromwell's Final Orders that I'd prefer over Mullins' Authorized Art. Both obviously have their chances however for master trainers, while an interesting contender at a big price is Torn And Frayed for Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Not having son Sam in the plate is a blow but the team are rolling along supremely at the start of the season, as they so often do, and this horse could well be suited to the stiff test this will become. He sits prominently in his races when on song and could be an interesting each-way play for those wanting a big priced poke. He has a real featherweight of just ten stone two to carry and Tom Bellamy isn't a bad deputy, so along with Harper's Brook and Fugitif he enters calculations. For the sake of my pocket and the intriguing Gold Cup picture as the season progresses though, it's all about the Whacker to put in a Real star quality performance to take the Cup.