Today's York Tips: Stick with the Vision in the opener

Nick Seddon runs through the card on Day Four of this year's York Ebor Festival, and picks out his best bet in every race...

13:50 - Strensall Stakes

We kick off the action with the Group 3 Strensall Stakes over a mile, in which Dark Vision is a confident pick. He spent a year in the wilderness, but he's firmly got back on track for the Mark Johnston team this season, winning the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot and picking up a listed success at Pontefract last time out. There's every reason to think that there's more to come from him yet as his resurgence continues, and he's a strong fancy to make a winning return to Group company. Lord Glitters is dangerous dropped in grade after finishing a fine second in a Group 2 contest over a mile and a quarter last time, though he tends to save his best form for Ascot, and Dark Vision is readily preferred in what looks a good opportunity to strike.

14:25 - Melrose Handicap

Up next is a 15-runner three-year-old handicap for the stayers, in which several are worthy of consideration. Favorite Moon is popular in the betting after defeating Subjectivist at Haydock last month - form which is working out well - though he'll need more under a 7 lb rise, while Kipps has posted strong form in three starts this term without getting his head in-front. Each of Mambo Nights, Coltrane and King's Charisma arrive here on rolls but have career high marks to defy, and a narrow vote goes the way of Bodyline.

He's shaped well in three starts without winning so far this term, and he gave the firm impression that he'd be suited by further when taking a long time to organise himself when second at Newmarket on his most recent start in June. A test of stamina should suit this son of Australia, and he's fancied to strike off a workable-looking mark of 87.

15:00 - City of York Stakes

An interesting renewal of the City of York, though a very confident vote goes the way of One Master. She's a bona fide specialist over this trip, and showed smart form when winning the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time. She took a long time to get going that day and did well to get her nose in-front in a muddling race, and bearing in mind she's a proven top level animal, he's fancied to prove too strong. Threat has been crying out for this trip for a while now and could well click into place, while each of  Escobar, Safe Voyage and San Donato are viable alternatives in what's a very warm renewal. 

15:40 - Ebor Handicap

A typically wide-open renewal of the Ebor, and barring a late exodus we'll have a full compliment of 22 runners. The prize money is vastly reduced for obvious reasons, but there's a sea of talented runners, including the current favourite Fujaira Prince. He is lightly-raced for his age with just seven starts, though he’s a smart performer and produced a career best effort to win a competitive handicap over this trip at Royal Ascot in June. He’s clearly fragile, but this seems likely to have been his target, and it isn’t out of the realms of possibility that he can defy a 9 lb rise on just his second try at this trip. Each of Trueshan, Pondus, Monica Sheriff and Pablo Escobarr have claims but history doesn't favour four-year-olds, while Hochfeld would be one to seriously consider if sneaking into the race (currently second reserve). 

However, the vote goes the way of True Self, who represents Willie Mullins. She was an excellent sixth in this race last year off a 2 lb higher mark, and while connections were left disappointed when she subsequently missed the cut for the Melbourne Cup, she made up for that by winning a Group 3 contest over slightly shorter at Flemington. She should be fit for this after two runs in Group company so far this campaign, and bearing in mind that she's likely to have a good pace to aim at, she's fancied to take advantage of her current mark by striking from a solid low draw in stall seven. 

16:10 - Julia Graves Roses Stakes

An open-looking listed contest for two-year-olds, and it's Politics who makes the most appeal. There's plenty to like about his pedigree as a half-brother to several winners, and he showed both a good attitude and plenty of ability when knuckling down well to get off the mark over this trip at Sandown earlier this month. That form has worked out well, with the runner-up winning since, and he's fancied to take another step forward by following up. Ben Macdui placed in a Group 3 contest at Goodwood last time and is respected, while Winter Power was too bad to be true at the same meeting most recently, but remains with plenty of promise judged on the style of her breakthrough success at Redcar.

16:40 - Sky Bet Handicap

It's hard to do anything but keep faith with Maydanny, who obliged for this column in some style when bounding clear in a competitive-looking event over this trip at Goodwood last month. He faces an 11 lb rise here, but there should still be more to come yet from this lightly-raced four-year-old, and he can continue Jim Crowley's fine week in the Al Maktoum colours. Sinjaari is a huge threat under an 8 lb penalty after winning the John Smith's Cup over course and distance last month, while Derevo and Sky Defender are two more to consider. 

17:10 - Sky Bet Apprentice Handicap

We close the card with an apprentice handicap over the minimum trip, and Sampers Seven can send punters home happy. She's an upwardly mobile type, and impressed when hosing up over course and distance last month. She faces a 10 lb rise for that, but there should be more to come from this filly on just her fifth start for the very shrewd Mick Appleby team - and the booking of Cieren Fallon is an excellent one at this level. Meraas is a smart handicapper, and isn't passed over lightly after more than holding his own in the Stewards' Cup at the beginning of the month, while Wonderwork is another in-form type to consider.