Longshot Ted: I'm on Tizzard's charge at Newbury

avatar
Mister Malarky was a game winner at Newbury back in January.
Mister Malarky was a game winner at Newbury back in January.

In the third edition of his new weekly column, Ed Quigley picks out his best bet in Saturday's big race at Newbury, the Ladbrokes Trophy, a handicap which has a fine record of producing top-class staying chasers...

It's the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury on Saturday, and this year's renewal has a fairly wide-open feel to it. In previous years we have been spoilt with the race often containing a splattering of Grade 1/RSA Chase winners, but this time around the second season chaser with the absolute 'X-Factor', on the surface, would not appear to be there at present. That being said, it still makes for an intriguing encounter and looks as you would expect, an ultra-competitive betting heat. 

Ok Corral heads the market, and the Nicky Henderson-trained nine-year-old, who won his first two starts over fences, arrives into this contest having not been seen since being pulled-up in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Henderson explained the poor run by saying that the gelding 'was knocked sideways' by the Flu jab a month before his big race at Prestbury Park. Undoubtedly he is still unexposed over fences, but with a lack of a recent run he has plenty of questions to answer for a horse around 6/1, and the value looks to have vanished. Cabaret Queen commands plenty of respect on the back of an emphatic success in the Munster National at Limerick last time out, but the Willie Mullins-trained mare is in much deeper waters here. She has to prove her first win in 16 months wasn't a fluke, but is versatile in regards to ground-requirements and looks capable of giving a good account of herself despite the hike in grade.

Others to note include another Seven Barrows representative in the shape of On The Blind Side, who looks to be finally starting to get his act together over fences, Galway Plate winner Borice, who is looking to complete a four-timer, and Dingo Dollar, who was third in this 12 months ago off a mark of 148, and runs this time off 2 lb lower. A recent spin over hurdles at this venue for the Alan King representative should have primed for another big run here. Top weight Elegant Escape was runner-up last year, and should go well once again. However, from a 5 lb higher mark of 160, it will take a phenomenal effort to defy that rating from the Colin Tizzard runner.

Despite his underwhelming performance when well beaten at Ascot last time out, it's another of the Tizzard string that interests me, and MISTER MALARKY still has the scope to progress off his current mark, and looks tailor-made for the demands of this assignment. At Ascot, he was travelling nicely just off the pace until making a mess of the 10th fence that day, which appeared to knock all the confidence out of him in the aftermath as he was beaten 83 lengths. Clearly, he cannot make an error like that here, but his jumping was one his assets last season, and so I am prepared to forgive that uncharacteristic blunder. Regardless of the result, the race should have stripped him spot-on for this, and Tizzard exclaimed with a wry smile 'at least the handicapper can't put him up for that effort!'. He enjoys Newbury, as he demonstrated when an emphatic winner at the track back in January and can bounce back to winning ways here.

Advice:

Ladbrokes Trophy, Newbury, Saturday 30th November 2019 - Mister Malarky, 1pt e/w at 10/1 (generally)

Tip

Ladbrokes Trophy
Mister Malarky silk

Mister Malarky

lost
Today's Naps Table
£20 Risk Free First bet
Limited to one per person. If you’ve previously had a Paddy Power account, you will not qualify for the offer. Place your FIRST bet on any Sportsbook market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is  £20. Only deposits made using Cards or Paypal will qualify for this promotion. Paddy's Rewards Club: Get a  £10 free bet when you place 5x bets of  £10+. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
New customers using Promo Code P30 only, min £10/€10 stake, min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15 (30 days expiry), free bet/payment method/player/country restrictions apply. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Welcome Offer
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5 and 1x settled bet requirement to release Bet Credits. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins
You must stake £10 or more at single/cumulative odds of Evens (2.0) or greater on your first bet. Free bet balance of £30 credited within 48 hours of your first bet being settled. Free Bets expire after 7 days. E-Wallet restrictions apply. Minimum 5 game rounds. Game restrictions apply. Maximum 30 Free Spins on selected games. Free Spins expire after 7 days. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £5 Get £30
New Customers only. Deposit and place a £5 qualifying bet at odds of 2.00 or greater within 7 days of opening a new account; excludes cashed out bets. Receive 2x £10 Free Sports Bets, valid on set events only at odds 2.00 or greater, expires in 7 days, plus a £10 Casino Bonus, expires in 7 days. Wager the Casino Bonus 35x to withdraw winnings. Credit/Debit card deposits only. Geographical Restrictions and T&Cs Apply. Please Gamble Responsibly
Bet £10 Get £40
New customers only – £10 deposit using promo code "FOOTBALL" or "RACING"- First bet must be placed on any market - Minimum stake £10 at odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Deposit balance is available for withdrawal at any time. General deposit method & withdrawal restrictions apply & Full T&C’s apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Free £20 Exchange Bet
New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Up to £30 in Free Bets
New UK & Ireland Customers Only. Min Deposit: £/€10. 1 x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Credit Card, Debit Card & PayPal deposits only. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 on Football & Get £30 Bonus + £10 Casino Bonus
New customers only. 18+, BeGambleAware.org. Minimum deposit £10. UK customers only. Place a £10+ bet on football of odds 1/1 (2.00) or greater to receive your 3x£10 in football free bets. Free bets will expire 7 days after your qualifying bet is settled. £10 Casino bonus will be credited the next working day after you have deposited. Casino bonus must be wagered at least 35x before any withdrawals can take place. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
£25 Bet Bundle
18+ T&Cs apply. Cash stakes only. Min £10 stake required for initial £5 free bet. Min odds ½. Max £25 in free bets. Subsequent free bets equal 50% average of each 3 qualifying bets. 13 bets required to receive full £25 free bet. Qualifying bet must be placed within 30 days of opening account. Free bet expires after 7 days. Payment method restrictions apply. ** **18+. UK/IRE customers only. Max refund £20. Win or win part of e/w outright singles only. Min field size required. 1st bet on each race. Free bet expires after 7 days. Ante post bets after 9am 5/3/2019 qualify. Free/void bets don’t qualify. T&Cs apply.