Longshot Ted: I'm on Tizzard's charge at Newbury

Mister Malarky was a game winner at Newbury back in January.
Mister Malarky was a game winner at Newbury back in January.

In the third edition of his new weekly column, Ed Quigley picks out his best bet in Saturday's big race at Newbury, the Ladbrokes Trophy, a handicap which has a fine record of producing top-class staying chasers...

It's the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury on Saturday, and this year's renewal has a fairly wide-open feel to it. In previous years we have been spoilt with the race often containing a splattering of Grade 1/RSA Chase winners, but this time around the second season chaser with the absolute 'X-Factor', on the surface, would not appear to be there at present. That being said, it still makes for an intriguing encounter and looks as you would expect, an ultra-competitive betting heat. 

Ok Corral heads the market, and the Nicky Henderson-trained nine-year-old, who won his first two starts over fences, arrives into this contest having not been seen since being pulled-up in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Henderson explained the poor run by saying that the gelding 'was knocked sideways' by the Flu jab a month before his big race at Prestbury Park. Undoubtedly he is still unexposed over fences, but with a lack of a recent run he has plenty of questions to answer for a horse around 6/1, and the value looks to have vanished. Cabaret Queen commands plenty of respect on the back of an emphatic success in the Munster National at Limerick last time out, but the Willie Mullins-trained mare is in much deeper waters here. She has to prove her first win in 16 months wasn't a fluke, but is versatile in regards to ground-requirements and looks capable of giving a good account of herself despite the hike in grade.

Others to note include another Seven Barrows representative in the shape of On The Blind Side, who looks to be finally starting to get his act together over fences, Galway Plate winner Borice, who is looking to complete a four-timer, and Dingo Dollar, who was third in this 12 months ago off a mark of 148, and runs this time off 2 lb lower. A recent spin over hurdles at this venue for the Alan King representative should have primed for another big run here. Top weight Elegant Escape was runner-up last year, and should go well once again. However, from a 5 lb higher mark of 160, it will take a phenomenal effort to defy that rating from the Colin Tizzard runner.

Despite his underwhelming performance when well beaten at Ascot last time out, it's another of the Tizzard string that interests me, and MISTER MALARKY still has the scope to progress off his current mark, and looks tailor-made for the demands of this assignment. At Ascot, he was travelling nicely just off the pace until making a mess of the 10th fence that day, which appeared to knock all the confidence out of him in the aftermath as he was beaten 83 lengths. Clearly, he cannot make an error like that here, but his jumping was one his assets last season, and so I am prepared to forgive that uncharacteristic blunder. Regardless of the result, the race should have stripped him spot-on for this, and Tizzard exclaimed with a wry smile 'at least the handicapper can't put him up for that effort!'. He enjoys Newbury, as he demonstrated when an emphatic winner at the track back in January and can bounce back to winning ways here.

Advice:

Ladbrokes Trophy, Newbury, Saturday 30th November 2019 - Mister Malarky, 1pt e/w at 10/1 (generally)

Tip

Ladbrokes Trophy
Mister Malarky silk

Mister Malarky

lost
Today's Naps Table
Deposit £10 Get £60 + 100 Free Spins
New Customers from UK & IRL only. Deposits made with e-wallets are not valid for this promo. Bonus wagering x35 on eligible games. Winnings from bonus capped at  £500. Spins available after bonus is redeemed/lost. Opt in required. Full T&C’s apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Deposit £10 Get A £30 Bonus
Opt-in required, Only first deposit qualifies, Min deposit £10, max bonus £30 with 40x wagering. Max redeemable £2000 from the bonus. Bonus expires 7 days from issue. Game, player, currency and country restrictions and terms apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Welcome Offer
Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5 and 1x settled bet requirement to release Bet Credits. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org.
Wager £10 & Get £90 Bonus Package
New Customers only. Deposit and wager £10 within 7 days of opening new account. £90 bonus = 1 x £15 bonus, 2 x £20 bonus and 1x £25 bonus (for selected games, up to 60x wagering applicable) + 1 x £10 Price It Up Free Bet. Bonuses expire 3 days after crediting. Credit and Debit cards only. Geographical Restrictions and T&Cs Apply, see below. Please Gamble Responsibly.
Bet £10 Get £30 + 30 Free Spins
You must stake £10 or more at single/cumulative odds of Evens (2.0) or greater on your first bet. Free bet balance of £30 credited within 48 hours of your first bet being settled. Free Bets expire after 7 days. E-Wallet restrictions apply. Minimum 5 game rounds. Game restrictions apply. Maximum 30 Free Spins on selected games. Free Spins expire after 7 days. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Up to £30 in Free Bets
New UK & Ireland Customers Only. Min Deposit: £/€10. 1 x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Credit Card, Debit Card & PayPal deposits only. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 & Get £30 Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
Minimum deposit of £10 using deposit code 30F - A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 placed on any sports market - Minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager bonus amount x40 within 14 days • Wagering req. vary by game • Withdrawal restrictions and Full T&C’s apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
£25 Bet Bundle
18+ T&Cs apply. Cash stakes only. Min £10 stake required for initial £5 free bet. Min odds ½. Max £25 in free bets. Subsequent free bets equal 50% average of each 3 qualifying bets. 13 bets required to receive full £25 free bet. Qualifying bet must be placed within 30 days of opening account. Free bet expires after 7 days. Payment method restrictions apply. ** **18+. UK/IRE customers only. Max refund £20. Win or win part of e/w outright singles only. Min field size required. 1st bet on each race. Free bet expires after 7 days. Ante post bets after 9am 5/3/2019 qualify. Free/void bets don’t qualify. T&Cs apply.
Free £20 Exchange Bet
New customers only, bet up to €/£20 on the Exchange and if your first bet loses, we’ll refund you €/£20 in Cash. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. T&Cs apply, 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £10
Bonus Code: £10CHELT. 18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st Deposit, Min Deposit: £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets no eligible. T&C's apply, 18+ begambleaware.org.
Bet £10 Get £10
18+, Welcome Bonus: New Players only, 1st deposit, Min Deposit £10, max £10 free bet valid for 14 days, bets must be placed at odds of 1/1 or greater and be settled within 14 days of placement. System bets not eligible. Only depositing using specific payment methods. T&C's apply, begambleaware.org.
Up to £40 In Bonuses + £10 Casino Bonus
New customers only. 18+, BeGambleAware.org. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus. Wagering requirements: Sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), Casino 25x. Only one bonus can be used at a time, Sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the Casino, unless the bonus has been forfeited. Bonus will expire after 7 days of opt-in.T&C's apply.